Part 2: In 2023, will changes at Twitter be a surprise?
19
87
350
resolved Jan 2
Resolved as
55%

On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.

One of these predictions was the following:

“Following Twitter acquisition chaos—multiple centralized and decentralized sites including Mastodon have popped up as Twitter replacements with multiple brands and advertisers cutting ties with the platform at the end of 2022. However, it is my prediction that by the end of 2023, users will return to Twitter—but how much Twitter will change in a year will be a surprise to us all. —Michael Jones, CEO and managing director, Science Inc.

I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".

Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:

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I'm resolving this to 40%. IMO much of Twitter change has been in line with expectation - tough year following the acquisition, somewhat chaotic leadership decisions, adoption (and lackluster response) of the subscription model, etc. While one couldn't predict the exact changes, it seemed likely that there would be significant change - and Twitter today seems within the realm of expectations when this prediction was made. I certainly wouldn't say that Twitter's changes has "been a surprise to us all".

That said, I agree with Sundry that the name change was surprising. Musk's increasingly toxic behavior was a surprise to me at least. And another interesting way of measuring this is how market prices changed for questions relating to Twitter in 2023:

- /SneakySly/at-the-end-of-2023-will-manifold-us Muted trend downward from ~33% BoY
- /itsTomekK/will-elon-musk-be-twitters-ceo-thro Traders got to 70% certainty that Elon would stay CEO before he was ultimately replaced!
- /ACXBot/28-will-twitters-net-income-be-high Traders were uncertain at first & trended pessimistic by EOY with more information
- /SneakySly/will-twitter-have-more-daily-active Traders thought it was likely that DAU would increase, but by EOY had a change of heart

I'm sure there is more analysis to be done here, but it seems like there were certainly some difficult-to-predict Twitter events, but overall nothing out of the realm of expectation.

bought Ṁ222 of YES

@CarsonGale thanks for the detailed explanation. I suppose my interpretation of the market was that specific changes would be a surprise, even if changes on the whole were not entirely unexpected (if that makes sense). it perhaps wasn't unexpected that there would be a leadership change, for example, but it was pretty surprising that Linda was the chosen CEO (in June)? it seems a bit broadstroke to say "twitter was in flux so most things couldn't be classified as a surprise" imo - but that's how I read the description/intention.

predicted YES

@shankypanky I agree.

predicted YES

under these terms it feels like anything short of closing twitter entirely or registering it as a 501c3 etc. wouldn't classify as surprising which makes it a really narrow scope
(also, the name change wasn't just a matter of terminology - they killed the bird and set forth altering the entire brand)

predicted YES

also (sorry, last one):
- launching their own xAI
- launching a premium subscription (tied to the AI) in multiple countries
- launching paid verification for all users (instead of only celebrities/people of note) removing this as I notice that was late 2022
- launching 'profit sharing' by paying creators for the impressions on their tweets/posts
- implemented Community Notes program as a primary means of moderation sitewide

@shankypanky These are good points and in particular xAI (with 25% X ownership) and the brand dissolution seem like meaningful, maybe unexpected changes. Also community notes implementation was good.

I continue to think the 'surprises' have been limited in scope and aren't far beyond the types of things one could have reasonably expected to happen in January. The company still largely does what it has always done, albeit with fewer people, different logo, and now growing AI capabilities. I don't think Jan '23 people would be falling out of their chairs with these updates.

I think I'll modify to 55% as I didn't fully account for some of the points you raised. LMK of any thoughts before I do that.

predicted YES

@CarsonGale thanks for hearing me out on that.
while I hear your perspective, I still think the market is far more subjective than I interpreted it to be before betting. I didn't interpret the resolution criteria to specify any fundamental changes to Twitter's offering in order to qualify, but rather, that surprising announcements/changes would occur which I of course believe that there's a fair list of things in that category. I notice you don't agree that twitter becoming an income stream for creators registers as an unexpected change?
so basically, I personally disagree. yet, it's your market and perhaps I need to recalibrate my interpretations of criteria going forward. your modification is appreciated.

@shankypanky Thanks for being polite & helping me to update! It was a shoddy market in the first place - there was a disclaimer in the original group for this market series (that has now unfortunately been deprecated) previewing that, given the non-specific resolution criteria, traders should expect a lot of subjectivity. Unfortunately, you probably didn't see that since they changed the Group/Topic layout!

predicted YES

@CarsonGale you're right I didn't see any disclaimers or clarifications and admittedly I only placed my bet today. in my experience it takes time and experience to understand another person's way of thinking or approaching these things, too, which would signal when things that seem cut and dried for me might not be because our brains are wired differently. I guess that's the blanket disclaimer? 😅

bought Ṁ350 of YES

That it would change at all was a given. The nature and size of those changes were a surprise. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk

bought Ṁ100 of YES

No one was expecting the rename

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