28. Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?
resolved Jan 4

To be resolved using https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-income-quarterly/ . If not all four quarters of data are available in January 2024 when we resolve this question, we will compare however many quarters of 2023 are available to their 2022 equivalents.

This is question #28 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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📢Resolving on behalf of creator of question : Proof Below :

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Musk told Kennedy that Twitter had lost billions of dollars in advertising revenue due to Musk’s approach to content moderation on the social platform.

“It’s definitely been extremely difficult,” Musk said. “Basically, our revenue is cut in half because we didn’t toe the line.”

Advertising revenue per minute spent on Twitter will probably be down due to worse relationships with advertisers plus economic conditions, although my guess is the effect is modest. Time spent on the site could go either way, as question 29 indicates. Sure, a bunch of people are complaining, but that’s what people do on the internet. I don’t see any substantial change, and my guess is this will be roughly static. So the question is whether Twitter can come up with other revenue streams, as Musk seems very keen on doing. It seems tough to unlock all that much here, so I am not excited, but I also don’t especially want to bet against him and Metaculus is on the high side. I bought M200 of YES, which moved this to 42%.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

bought Ṁ25 of YES

Am I right in saying that because twitter is private now they're not obligated to publish quarterly earnings?

predicted YES

@WilliamHoward if so then the galaxy brain move is to bet YES bc they will only publish them if they're surprisingly good

predicted NO

@WilliamHoward When the banks sell the debt on the open market these numbers will need to be published because Twitter cash flow is the asset used to secure the debt. Musk can’t stop this unless he buys the debt himself and retires it.

@BTE I assume the numbers would be privately shared with debt buyers and their auditors, not published.

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