At the end of 2023 will manifold users think Twitter has changed for the better?
393
1.8K
2.2K
Jan 1
14%
chance

This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk.

At the end of 2023 after market close I will link a poll in the comments that asks Manifold users if Twitter has improved for the better. If the majority result is YES, this market resolves YES.


Post of related markets:
https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Sort by:
Mirek avatar
Quantum Gamblerpredicts NO

“Go fuck yourself.” Elon Musk (November 29, 2023)

DanPowell avatar
Dan Powell

I’m interested in hearing the reasoning that people who vote yes on the survey have.

StevenK avatar
Stevensold Ṁ58 of YES

@DanPowell Say what you will about Twitter-2023, but it undeniably has a year's worth of additional tweets on it, and they're informative about the events of the year 2023 in a way that Twitter-2022 was never able to achieve

Ernie avatar
Erniepredicts YES

@DanPowell For me it's way better. People say things that are actually controversial and where disagreement is meaningful and allowed. Pre-musk twitter, a huge percent of the time when someone says "X" and doesn't get banned, saying "!X or even giving reasons/evidence" was just not allowed.

Also a lot more people feel not as cancellable so there is a lot more serious debate.

Also, the social tech for how to provide and argue things has improved. Also AI art has improved a ton so lots more posts have interesting visualizations on them, same as on manifold.

Ernie avatar
Erniepredicts YES

@SneakySly yeah that doesn't look good. if that's the real state of things for everyone, seems not right?

technical question, do we know if hiding is scoped to source, or is stateless? if this account were marked as "trans, and aggressively anti-cis" it might lead to an outcome like this (i.e. since the filter evaluator would not be looking for "anti-trans" comments from them but would be looking for "anti-cis"). This is only an assumption/question, not an invalidation of the wrongness of the image if the background for it does turn out to be a true inequality in treatment

SneakySly avatar
SneakySly

@Ernie I’ve seen multiple people post repros of this. We know Elon is very anti trans so don’t need anything crazy to explain this.

Ernie avatar
Erniepredicts YES

@SneakySly huh, yeah I don't like the inconsistency there. Seems like it should be symmetrical, and just not go on about hating whole groups either way

DanPowell avatar
Dan Powellpredicts NO

@Ernie Looks like it’s specific to cis and neither symmetrical nor consistent.

To be clear, I think all of those should have been censored.

Shai avatar
Shaipredicts YES

@DanPowell I'd rather my social media networks not explicitly take a side in american culture wars

Shai avatar
Shaipredicts YES

@DanPowell does "all trannies should be killed" or "all kikes should be killed" get a similar label? If yes then it's sorta defensible.

Shai avatar
Shaibought Ṁ5 of YES

Twitter is the sort of website that people love to hate, even before the Musk takeover.

That said I think that the Community Notes approach to misinformation is a lot better than what twitter had before.

nottelling2ccc avatar
not tellingpredicts NO

@Shai I also agree that Community Notes are generally better (from what I've seen, anyway), but Musk also made a bunch of bad decisions that made the site much worse, IMO. API access is now very expensive, third party clients are no longer allowed, Tweetdeck is now a paid feature, and so is getting verified. The verification system wasn't perfect beforehand, but Musk turning it into a Sneetches-like signifier of "I pay Twitter $7/month" was awful. I suppose it was a boon to Musk, as he can now easily distinguish members of his in-group.

nottelling2ccc avatar
not tellingpredicts NO

@nottelling2ccc Plus, Musk's changes mean that Twitter's user base has been consisting of more and more annoying right-wing reactionaries that go unchecked, while they (hypocritically) clamp down on things like this: https://meow.social/@rinidisc/111364483302603842

nottelling2ccc avatar
not tellingpredicts NO

@nottelling2ccc Despite it all, some good people have remained on the platform. If you still get value from the site, more power to you. Personally, I think that it's ultimately run by a man who only really cares about himself, and to a lesser extent, his supporters.

dittopoop avatar
dittopoopbought Ṁ315 of NO

@Shai Community notes was already a feature before the Musk takeover

Ernie avatar
Erniepredicts YES

@nottelling2ccc in a world of AI training companies grabbing all data possible, ratelimiting the API makes sense? It seems hard to have it both ways; either you oppose or support data copying generally (images for midjourney/dalle3, text for all). If you support it generally, my comment is not relevant & you are consistent.

nottelling2ccc avatar
not tellingpredicts NO

Regarding the poll you run to resolve this market: are you going to only ask people who still actively use the site? Because there are many people who have quit the site for good or only occasionally use it, and weather or not their voice is counted (or subtly filtered out via how the survey is worded) will probably affect the results a lot.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Youngpredicts YES

@nottelling2ccc I guess I will use a manifold polll?

nottelling2ccc avatar
not tellingpredicts NO

@NathanpmYoung Will the wording be more like “Do you think Twitter has changed for the better” than “Has your Twitter experience changed for the better?”

SneakySly avatar
SneakySly

@nottelling2ccc It will be a Manifold poll. The question will be: "Do you think Twitter has changed for the better?"

Sailfish avatar
Sailfishbought Ṁ20 of NO

I would be pretty surprised if the average manifold user enjoys "Xeeting"

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicts YES

@Sailfish it's probably healthy to xeet every now and then to make sure everything is still working.