This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk.
At the end of 2023 after market close I will link a poll in the comments that asks Manifold users if Twitter has improved for the better. If the majority result is YES, this market resolves YES.
Post of related markets:
https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of
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@DanPowell Say what you will about Twitter-2023, but it undeniably has a year's worth of additional tweets on it, and they're informative about the events of the year 2023 in a way that Twitter-2022 was never able to achieve
@DanPowell For me it's way better. People say things that are actually controversial and where disagreement is meaningful and allowed. Pre-musk twitter, a huge percent of the time when someone says "X" and doesn't get banned, saying "!X or even giving reasons/evidence" was just not allowed.
Also a lot more people feel not as cancellable so there is a lot more serious debate.
Also, the social tech for how to provide and argue things has improved. Also AI art has improved a ton so lots more posts have interesting visualizations on them, same as on manifold.
@SneakySly yeah that doesn't look good. if that's the real state of things for everyone, seems not right?
technical question, do we know if hiding is scoped to source, or is stateless? if this account were marked as "trans, and aggressively anti-cis" it might lead to an outcome like this (i.e. since the filter evaluator would not be looking for "anti-trans" comments from them but would be looking for "anti-cis"). This is only an assumption/question, not an invalidation of the wrongness of the image if the background for it does turn out to be a true inequality in treatment
@SneakySly huh, yeah I don't like the inconsistency there. Seems like it should be symmetrical, and just not go on about hating whole groups either way
@Ernie Looks like it’s specific to cis and neither symmetrical nor consistent.
To be clear, I think all of those should have been censored.
@DanPowell I'd rather my social media networks not explicitly take a side in american culture wars
@DanPowell does "all trannies should be killed" or "all kikes should be killed" get a similar label? If yes then it's sorta defensible.
Twitter is the sort of website that people love to hate, even before the Musk takeover.
That said I think that the Community Notes approach to misinformation is a lot better than what twitter had before.
@Shai I also agree that Community Notes are generally better (from what I've seen, anyway), but Musk also made a bunch of bad decisions that made the site much worse, IMO. API access is now very expensive, third party clients are no longer allowed, Tweetdeck is now a paid feature, and so is getting verified. The verification system wasn't perfect beforehand, but Musk turning it into a Sneetches-like signifier of "I pay Twitter $7/month" was awful. I suppose it was a boon to Musk, as he can now easily distinguish members of his in-group.
@nottelling2ccc Plus, Musk's changes mean that Twitter's user base has been consisting of more and more annoying right-wing reactionaries that go unchecked, while they (hypocritically) clamp down on things like this: https://meow.social/@rinidisc/111364483302603842
@nottelling2ccc Despite it all, some good people have remained on the platform. If you still get value from the site, more power to you. Personally, I think that it's ultimately run by a man who only really cares about himself, and to a lesser extent, his supporters.
@nottelling2ccc in a world of AI training companies grabbing all data possible, ratelimiting the API makes sense? It seems hard to have it both ways; either you oppose or support data copying generally (images for midjourney/dalle3, text for all). If you support it generally, my comment is not relevant & you are consistent.
@SneakySly Anecdotally, I saw an increase in activity on my Mastodon feed that day from people who are normally most active on Xitter.
Regarding the poll you run to resolve this market: are you going to only ask people who still actively use the site? Because there are many people who have quit the site for good or only occasionally use it, and weather or not their voice is counted (or subtly filtered out via how the survey is worded) will probably affect the results a lot.
@NathanpmYoung Will the wording be more like “Do you think Twitter has changed for the better” than “Has your Twitter experience changed for the better?”
@nottelling2ccc It will be a Manifold poll. The question will be: "Do you think Twitter has changed for the better?"
@Sailfish it's probably healthy to xeet every now and then to make sure everything is still working.
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