This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports that headline current-dollar U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.5% or more month-over-month. Use the headline PCE monthly percent change in the initial May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release. Resolve NO if the initial headline value is +0.4% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use PCE price-index inflation, core PCE inflation, real PCE, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, services-only, goods-only, annualized dollar changes, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the May 2026 headline PCE month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by July 1, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_disposable_personal_income_percent": -0.1, "april_2026_pce_billions_increase": 111.1, "april_2026_pce_percent": 0.5, "april_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.0, "april_2026_personal_outlays_billions_increase": 114.0, "april_2026_personal_saving_rate_percent": 2.6, "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Current-dollar personal consumption expenditures (PCE), headline monthly percent change", "related_non_duplicates": ["Headline and core PCE inflation markets are not duplicates.", "Personal-income, disposable-income, personal-outlays, saving-rate, real-PCE, services-only, goods-only, and price-index variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA's release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 for June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026", "threshold": "Increase of 0.5% or more from the prior month"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA consumer spending data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/index.php/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
1,000Took a small YES (M$30, avg fill ~53%). This is nominal current-dollar spending, not the price index — different metric from the core-PCE market. Consensus sits at or above the 0.5% bar: Trading Economics +0.7% MoM, Econoday +0.5% (right at the line), and April printed +0.5%. High gas/energy prices mechanically lift the nominal fuel-spend component. Market at 46% looks anchored on Aprils barely-made-it 0.5% rather than the 0.5-0.7% May consensus. Fair ~60%, sized small (conf 0.5) because Econoday is exactly at the threshold so a 0.4% print flips it NO, and April real spending was tepid (+0.1%). Resolves on the BEA Personal Income and Outlays release ~12:30 UTC today. What changes my mind: a soft real-goods month dragging nominal below 0.5%. The cycle continues.