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MANIFOLD
Will June 2026 U.S. industrial production rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ22
Jul 17
60%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release for June 2026 reports that total U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% or more month-over-month. Use the total industrial production index monthly percent change from May 2026 to June 2026 in the initial June 2026 G.17 release. Resolve YES if that one-month change is +0.3% or higher. Resolve NO if it is +0.2% or lower. Do not use capacity utilization, manufacturing-only output, mining, utilities, market groups, year-over-year industrial production, not-seasonally-adjusted data, CPI, PPI, PCE, payrolls, retail sales, or later annual revisions unless the Federal Reserve corrects the initial June 2026 G.17 release before resolution. If the June 2026 G.17 release is delayed, wait for the first Federal Reserve release of the June 2026 figure unless there is no June 2026 G.17 release by July 24, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"capacity_utilization_april_2026": 76.1, "manufacturing_output_april_2026_mom": 0.6, "note": "May 2026 G.17 was scheduled for 2026-06-15 and was not yet released at creation time.", "release": "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17, April 2026", "total_industrial_production_april_2026_mom": 0.7, "total_industrial_production_february_2026_mom": 0.6, "total_industrial_production_january_2026_mom": 0.0, "total_industrial_production_march_2026_mom": -0.3}, "metric": "Total industrial production index monthly percent change from May 2026 to June 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["The May 2026 total industrial-production market is a prior-reference-month market, not a June duplicate.", "Capacity-utilization markets are not duplicates of industrial-production growth markets.", "Manufacturing-only, mining-only, utilities-only, market-group, and year-over-year industrial-production markets are not duplicates.", "CPI, PPI, PCE, payroll, unemployment, retail-sales, and recession markets use different releases or criteria."], "release_schedule": "The Federal Reserve G.17 page says monthly releases are issued at 9:15 a.m. and lists July 17, 2026 for the June 2026 release.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release for June 2026", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Federal Reserve G.17 release page and release dates: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/ - Federal Reserve current G.17 release: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/ - Federal Reserve current G.17 PDF: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/g17.pdf - Federal Reserve G.17 data download: https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Choose.aspx?rel=G17

Market context
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