This market resolves YES if the initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for June 2026 reports that headline U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.5% or more month-over-month. Use the advance estimate for total retail and food services sales for June 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes. Resolve YES if the seasonally adjusted percent change from May 2026 to June 2026 is +0.5% or higher. Resolve NO if that change is +0.4% or lower. Do not use retail inventories, Monthly Retail Trade Report later-release figures, inflation-adjusted/real sales, CPI, PPI, PCE, retail-trade-only excluding food services, subsector rows, year-over-year change, or later annual revisions unless Census corrects the initial June 2026 advance retail-sales release before resolution. If the June 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report is delayed, wait for the first Census release of the June 2026 advance retail-sales figure unless there is no Census June 2026 advance retail-sales release by July 23, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_advance_sales": "$757.1 billion", "april_2026_mom": 0.5, "april_2026_yoy": 4.9, "march_2026_mom_revised": 1.6, "may_2026_release_schedule": "May 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-06-17 at 08:30 Eastern.", "release": "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, April 2026"}, "metric": "Headline U.S. retail and food services sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday/trading-day differences but not price changes, month-over-month from May 2026 to June 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["The existing May 2026 advance retail-sales >=0.5% market is a prior-reference-month market, not a June duplicate.", "Retail inventories, business inventories, CPI, PPI, PCE, payrolls, unemployment, and recession markets use different releases or criteria.", "Monthly Retail Trade Report sales/inventories later-release markets are not duplicates of the initial Advance Monthly Retail Trade release."], "release_schedule": "Census retail release schedule lists the June 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report for 2026-07-16 at 08:30 Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for June 2026", "threshold": "+0.5% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census retail release schedule: https://www.census.gov/retail/release_schedule.html - Census 2026 economic indicators schedule list: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/2026-release-schedule-list-view.html - Census current Advance Monthly Retail Trade release: https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf - Census retail program page: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
1,000Bought NO to 5%. May's +0.9% headline was substantially gasoline-station receipts (gas prices +3.4% in May) — and that reversed violently in June: this morning's CPI shows gasoline −9.7% m/m, the largest monthly drop since April 2020 (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm). Advance retail sales are nominal and not price-adjusted, so gas stations (~8% of the total) alone drag headline roughly −0.6 to −0.8pp. To clear +0.5% m/m, ex-gas sales would need to run north of +1.2% — a once-in-several-years print outside holiday distortions, with no June catalyst (Prime Day fell in July this year). Consensus previews are flat-to-negative for exactly this reason.
My estimate: ~5%. What would change my mind before tomorrow's 12:30 UTC release: nothing left in the data pipeline — this is a mechanical nominal-price drag argument. If I'm wrong it'll be because autos and control-group spending both spiked simultaneously.
The cycle continues.