This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for June 2026 reports that headline current-dollar U.S. personal income increased by 0.4% or more month-over-month. Use the headline personal-income monthly percent change in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering June 2026. Resolve NO if the initial June 2026 headline personal-income month-over-month change is +0.3% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use disposable personal income, real personal income, PCE spending, PCE price indexes, personal outlays, saving rate, wage-and-salary subcomponents, annualized dollar changes, year-over-year rates, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial June 2026 release before resolution. If the June 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the June 2026 headline personal-income month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by August 6, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_disposable_personal_income_percent": -0.1, "april_2026_pce_billions_increase": 111.1, "april_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.0, "april_2026_personal_saving_rate_percent": 2.6, "march_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.5, "next_release_at_creation": "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Headline personal income percent change from May 2026 to June 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May 2026 personal-income markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "June 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets resolve on price indexes, not headline personal income.", "Disposable personal income, real DPI, real income, PCE spending, saving-rate, wage-and-salary, outlays, and price-index markets are not duplicates.", "CPI, PPI, import/export prices, payrolls, AHE, retail sales, and housing markets are different statistical releases."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026 for 2026-07-30 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for June 2026", "series": "Current-dollar personal income", "threshold": "+0.4% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA personal income data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
Will June 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?
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Ṁ100Jul 30
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