Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. unemployment rate reaches or exceeds 5.0% at any point during the calendar year 2025. The official unemployment rate is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and can be accessed at https://www.bls.gov/cps/. The highest reported monthly unemployment rate for 2025 will determine the market's resolution.

Background

As of June 2025, the U.S. unemployment rate stands at 4.2%. Recent economic developments, including the implementation of new tariff policies in April 2025, have introduced volatility into the labor market. For instance, in April 2025, job openings increased by 191,000 to 7.391 million, while layoffs rose by 196,000 to 1.786 million, indicating potential softening in the labor market amid economic uncertainty largely driven by inconsistent tariff policies. (reuters.com)

Considerations

While the current unemployment rate is below 5.0%, the recent economic policies and market reactions suggest potential for increased unemployment. Traders should monitor monthly BLS reports and consider the impact of ongoing economic policies on employment trends when making predictions.