Ted Cruz has not always been careful about what he likes on his Twitter account. Will he like a tweet containing the word rationalussy this year?
Notes:
This market will resolve YES as long as the tweet is liked by Ted Cruz's official account, even if Ted Cruz or his staff says that it was liked by someone else using his account (after all, there is no way to verify this).
By deafult, the market resolves NO if I am not aware of any instance of Ted Cruz liking a tweet with the word rationalussy, so if this actually happens, post evidence in the comments.
It still counts if the word "rationalussy" is spelled differently, as long as it is obvious that that is what the word was meant to be.
It still counts even if Ted Cruz removes the like or the tweet is deleted, as long as I have evidence that he had liked the tweet at one point in 2023.
Twitter's rebranding doesn't affect the outcome of this market. It doesn't matter if tweets are called tweets, xeets, or something else; all that matters is whether he likes one containing the word.
1,000
3.00@ButtocksCocktoasten This is not financial advice, but I encourage you to dump all your mana savings into this market. Seems like a reasonable decision considering your high degree of confidence
@FLAFFEN Now, now, lets think about this all so RATIONALUSSY before we skeet skeeting all over those NO shares. I am considering it.
@FLAFFEN Don't worry, I have ALREADY put all of my mana into YES shares in this market and other similar "rationalussy" markets. Currently, Manifold says that my profit is negative 887 mana, but that will change when all of those markets resolve to YES.
@ButtocksCocktoasten Very potent investment analysis. However, I should note that you are potentially misleading people by saying you have "put all your mana in rationalussy markets". A quick glance at your public investment portfolio shows that you have some funds tied up in markets pertaining to Donald Trump's Twitter situation that do not involve the word "rationalussy" in any way. Now, it appears you don't have that much mana in those markets, around Ṁ25, but the exact amount here doesn't matter. The fact that you are willing to outright lie about information that can be accessed in 2 clicks by anyone who takes due dilligence even a bit seriously gravely damages your reputation and trust.
@FLAFFEN This is a fair point that requires closer examination. While two of the markets in my investment portfolio do not, at first glance, appear to be related to rationalussy, on further inspection we find that they are in fact rationalussy markets.
Let us begin our analysis with the market "Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?" (Tomek K 🟡, 2022). The resolution criteria of this market are intimately tied with the question, "Will @realDonaldTrump write a tweet containing the word 'rationalussy' in 2023?", as posed in (Cocktoasten, 2023), for, if the criteria for a YES resolution of the latter market are met, so must be the analogous criteria of the former market. Furthermore, a comment posted on Tomek K's market confirms that my bet was made based on the expectation that former United States President Donald Johnathan Trump would tweet the word "rationalussy" at some point in the year 2023: https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2023#bSViuqQBXAzL9Jc3NO2B
We now turn our attention to (Dustin, 2022), which asks, "Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?" This, too, is related to rationalussy, as Donald Trump may be arrested for circumstances related to his tweet of the word "rationalussy". As was hypothesized by (Cocktoasten, 2023) in a comment on this market, Trump's arrest may even be a result of his tweeting "rationalussy": https://manifold.markets/Dustin/will-donald-trump-be-arrested-befor#YHO9OWysk8FoQZp1X05n
These arguments provide a strong case that the two Trump-related markets are, in fact, related to rationalussy. Further research is recommended to determine what other markets, if any, are also related to rationalussy, and an exegesis of the resolution of (Mataya, 2022), which asked, "Will the Effective Altruism Movement experience another major scandal not related to FTX by the end of 2023?", may be required to fully understand the potential relationship between that market and rationalussy, given the speculation that multiple prominent EA figures tweeting "rationalussy" may cause a scandal for the movement.
