Will the US housing market, measured by transactions, recover next year?
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Mod clarification:

This market will resolves YES if seasonally adjusted existing home sales, according to the National Association of Realtors and available at Trading Economics:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales

exceeds an annualised rate of 4.74 million units for any month in 2024.

This would represent an increase covering half of the gap between the minimum of 3.85 million units in Oct 2023, and the last datapoint before the pandemic, 5.63 million units in Feb 2020. So that would be a 50% recovery to a more "normal" level (the higher sales numbers immediately following the pandemic aren't a fair baseline since that was well above normal).

Reopened for trading until end of 2024.

Mod clarification:

This market will resolves YES if seasonally adjusted existing home sales, according to the National Association of Realtors and available at Trading Economics:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales

exceeds an annualised rate of 4.74 million units for any month in 2024.

This would represent an increase covering half of the gap between the minimum of 3.85 million units in Oct 2023, and the last datapoint before the pandemic, 5.63 million units in Feb 2020. So that would be a 50% recovery to a more "normal" level (the higher sales numbers immediately following the pandemic aren't a fair baseline since that was well above normal).

Reopened for trading until end of 2024.

@traders This seems... borderline vague? I could resolve N/A but I'd rather not.

Anyone want to suggest a resolution plan? What data source, what thresholds, etc.? We can clarify those as the answer as mods and reopen if there's a good option.

predicts NO

@EvanDaniel From https://www.redfin.com/blog/housing-market-year-in-review-2023/

"Just 4.59 million U.S. homes sold through November, an incredible 18.3% drop from the 5.62 million sold in 2022 during the same period."

predicts NO

@EvanDaniel I lost track if "next year" in this bet meant 2023 or 2024 (and it should be reopened). Basing it on a report like this from Redfin, Zillow or similar sources seem reasonable as long as they are in agreement and unambiguous.

@BradInman When will this resolve?

@EvanDaniel Creator’s only activity is this and two bets. They’re unlikely to return.

Can you link to a source/metric that you will base the resolution on?