Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?

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Fred Harrison has a theory called the "18 year land cycle", and claims to have correctly predicted the housing crash in 2008 and one in the 1990s:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property/article-12446057/Why-house-prices-set-soar-two-years-CRASH-claims-expert-accurately-predicted-property-market-collapse-2008-1990s.html

He's currently predicting we'll see a major real estate crash in 2026.

This market resolves YES if three conditions are held:

Real estate prices peak in 2026
Real estate prices at the end of 2026 are below the peak
Real estate prices by the end of 2027 have declined by at least 15% relative to the 2026 peak

The index we will use to define "real estate prices" is case-shiller:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

When the next house price crash is likely to hit, according to expert

As mortgage rates rocket to a two-decade high and buyers face the least affordable market in recent memory, alarm bells have been ringing over an imminent house price crash.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Predicting a real estate crash is tricky because so many factors, like interest rates, job markets, and housing supply play a role. Fred Harrison’s theory of the "18-year land cycle" is fascinating and has held up in past cases, but markets are dynamic and influenced by unexpected events.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Bet NO purely on intuition and the non-availability of news about this. May be totally wrong.

While predicting a 2026 real estate crash is speculative, sellers paying closing costs could signal market imbalance. This trend disadvantages sellers https://www.fastexpert.com/blog/seller-paid-closing-costs-can-a-seller-refuse-to-pay/ reducing profits and potentially inflating buyer expectations, which might destabilize the market if broader economic pressures align. Stay informed!

I set up some liquidity if this gets to 33% but I need meat on the bone to go for a resolution as far out as 2026-2027

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