Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?
29
968
Ṁ797Ṁ590
2028
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Fred Harrison has a theory called the "18 year land cycle", and claims to have correctly predicted the housing crash in 2008 and one in the 1990s:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property/article-12446057/Why-house-prices-set-soar-two-years-CRASH-claims-expert-accurately-predicted-property-market-collapse-2008-1990s.html
He's currently predicting we'll see a major real estate crash in 2026.
This market resolves YES if three conditions are held:
Real estate prices peak in 2026
Real estate prices at the end of 2026 are below the peak
Real estate prices by the end of 2027 have declined by at least 15% relative to the 2026 peak
The index we will use to define "real estate prices" is case-shiller:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will the average single family home price in the US be higher at the end of 2024 than it is now?
73% chance
Will the average commission rate for realtors in the USA fall below 4.6% by EOY 2028?
56% chance
Will US avoid a recession in 2024?
85% chance
Will the number of National Association of Realtors members in the USA fall below 1.3 million by EOY 2028?
66% chance
Will the delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in the U.S. exceed 2% for any quarter before 2026?
75% chance
Will the USA enter into a recession by June 2024
7% chance
In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?
Will the Canadian Real Estate Market collapse in 2024?
30% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?
22% chance
Will the USA housing market crash before 2024?
3% chance