Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?

1kṀ3100

2028

23%

chance

ALL

Fred Harrison has a theory called the "18 year land cycle", and claims to have correctly predicted the housing crash in 2008 and one in the 1990s:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property/article-12446057/Why-house-prices-set-soar-two-years-CRASH-claims-expert-accurately-predicted-property-market-collapse-2008-1990s.html

He's currently predicting we'll see a major real estate crash in 2026.

This market resolves YES if three conditions are held:

Real estate prices peak in 2026
Real estate prices at the end of 2026 are below the peak
Real estate prices by the end of 2027 have declined by at least 15% relative to the 2026 peak

The index we will use to define "real estate prices" is case-shiller:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

When the next house price crash is likely to hit, according to expert

As mortgage rates rocket to a two-decade high and buyers face the least affordable market in recent memory, alarm bells have been ringing over an imminent house price crash.

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Interesting takes in here—whether there’s a full-on crash or just a dip, I feel like the chaos always brings out more real estate scams. When the market’s shaky, scammers know people are desperate to buy or sell fast. I almost got tricked during the last dip, so now I always double-check stuff. This breakdown helped me spot a few red flags. Not saying doom is certain, but if things get rough, it’s good to be alert.