Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?
Plus
34
Ṁ19932028
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Fred Harrison has a theory called the "18 year land cycle", and claims to have correctly predicted the housing crash in 2008 and one in the 1990s:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property/article-12446057/Why-house-prices-set-soar-two-years-CRASH-claims-expert-accurately-predicted-property-market-collapse-2008-1990s.html
He's currently predicting we'll see a major real estate crash in 2026.
This market resolves YES if three conditions are held:
Real estate prices peak in 2026
Real estate prices at the end of 2026 are below the peak
Real estate prices by the end of 2027 have declined by at least 15% relative to the 2026 peak
The index we will use to define "real estate prices" is case-shiller:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
29% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?
10% chance
Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?
66% chance
Will the Canadian Real Estate Market collapse in 2024?
25% chance
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?
33% chance
Will the median price of houses sold in the US drop below $400,000 by Q1 2025?
29% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will the housing crisis abate in 2025?
37% chance
Will there be a Wall Street Stock Market Crash before 2027?
78% chance
Will US Housing Prices Drop by 20%+ by the End of 2030?
32% chance