Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?
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31
1.4k
2028
17%
chance

Fred Harrison has a theory called the "18 year land cycle", and claims to have correctly predicted the housing crash in 2008 and one in the 1990s:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property/article-12446057/Why-house-prices-set-soar-two-years-CRASH-claims-expert-accurately-predicted-property-market-collapse-2008-1990s.html

He's currently predicting we'll see a major real estate crash in 2026.

This market resolves YES if three conditions are held:

  • Real estate prices peak in 2026

  • Real estate prices at the end of 2026 are below the peak

  • Real estate prices by the end of 2027 have declined by at least 15% relative to the 2026 peak

The index we will use to define "real estate prices" is case-shiller:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

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I set up some liquidity if this gets to 33% but I need meat on the bone to go for a resolution as far out as 2026-2027

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