Resolves positively if, by 2030-12-31, 75% or more of US residential homes are sold without an intermediary (a realtor). Online exchanges do not count as an intermediary for purposes of this market, except if they employ human brokers that typically spend 2 hours or more on each transaction.
I will use whatever sources seem most credible in resolving this market. A few example sources that suggest residential real estate is not currently disintermediated are the National Association of Realtors (which says 85%+ of 2022 residential real estate transactions were brokered), the Close (which appears to be a real estate newspaper and says that 92% of residential real estate transactions were brokered), and also personal experience, where most people I know use a realtor when selling their house.
If several respectable news organizations report that over 75% of US residential homes are sold sans intermediary, that would be pretty convincing for me to resolve positively.
1,000No, it is highly unlikely that U.S. residential real estate will become fully “disintermediated” by 2030 (i.e., completely bypassing traditional intermediaries such as brokers, banks/lenders, title companies). But it’s very plausible that the sector will see meaningful disruption and partial disintermediation by then. And on the ground level of moving homes and settlement, companies such as laguna beach movers
are already streamlining processes—by offering enhanced logistics, simplified services and transparent pricing, they reduce friction in what traditionally has been a complex ecosystem. As these kinds of improvements accumulate across financing, title processing, broker services and property listing/discovery, one should expect a “hybrid” real-estate model by 2030: still involving some intermediaries, but with many functions automated, decentralized, or collapsed.