This market resolves to "Yes" if at any point between June 13, 2024 and December 31, 2030, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index experiences a drop of 20% or more from its previous peak value.
Resolution Criteria:
Data Source: The data source for determining housing prices will be the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
Calculation Method:
Identify the peak monthly values of the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index from June 2024 to December 2030.
Monitor the index values following the peak. If at any point the index value falls 20% or more below this peak, the market will resolve to "Yes."
Additional Notes:
In the event of significant methodological changes or discontinuation of the index, alternative reputable indices or sources (such as the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index) may be used at my sole discretion, with transparent communication to all participants.
Carson Gale, the market creator, may bet on this market.
Related questions
Interesting comparison market that I think should price much lower than this one given the methodology
/mattsly/before-jan-1-2027-us-home-prices-wi
Though I currently have a negative position on this market, I feel like I am much less bullish on US real estate than others around me.
Baby boomers own 40% of US residential housing, but will die off between now and 2040, unleashing significant supply. Homebuilding has accelerated significantly since 2008 (though it's still nothing to write home about...). Nobody wants to buy or sell in the current high-rate environment, but if rates don't fall in the near term people will need to start buying/selling eventually, locking in higher mortgage costs. Also declining population growth rate, YIMBY-ism, etc.
I should do some research but I’m curious if you have a reference for when this has ever happened before?
I suspect it occurred in the 2008 recession. Not sure when else.