This market resolves to "Yes" if at any point between June 13, 2024 and December 31, 2030, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index experiences a drop of 20% or more from its previous peak value.
Resolution Criteria:
Data Source: The data source for determining housing prices will be the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
Calculation Method:
Identify the peak monthly values of the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index from June 2024 to December 2030.
Monitor the index values following the peak. If at any point the index value falls 20% or more below this peak, the market will resolve to "Yes."
Additional Notes:
In the event of significant methodological changes or discontinuation of the index, alternative reputable indices or sources (such as the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index) may be used at my sole discretion, with transparent communication to all participants.
Carson Gale, the market creator, may bet on this market.
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