Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?
AI•The Great Logging Off
33
124
Ṁ650
2028
31%
chance

Prediction #7 in my "Great Logging Off" market

Meta-market:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/how-many-of-my-predictions-in-marke-089c96830000?groupId=KgzUh68PEIltJSzCnmF2

Blog post:
https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ai-markets-for-lemons-and-the-great-logging-off

This resolves YES, if, by the end of 2027, this FRED graph shows a value that is 25% higher (1.25x) than it was in Q3 2022 ($542,900), or $678,625.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS

For context, 5 years ago, Q3 of 2017, the value was $373,200. We've seen a 1.45X growth since then.

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Seems like that jump over the last 4 years is a low interest rate phenomenon... though my preferred reasoning for betting this down would be 'Lars will be astoundingly successful in creating popular support for a land value tax in the coming years'

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