Will homeownership become affordable again by the end of 2026?
Basic
4
Ṁ65
2027
27%
chance

Will resolve to YES if the Atlanta Fed Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) hits the affordability threshold of 100 (or higher) for any data point by the end of 2026.

Most recent HOAM level is 68.5 (June 2024).

The last time the HOAM was above the affordability threshold was April 2021.

An HOAM Index level of 100 indicates that the median household income is sufficient to cover the annual costs of owning a home (housing cost no greater than 30% of income). It assumes 10% down payment and 30 year fixed rate mortgage.

https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor

(There is a delay so final resolution may be months after the end of 2026).

In the event that the HOAM Index stops being updated or the methodology changes I will attempt to find a substitute, and may resolve N/A, pending discussion.

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