Who will win my joint markets contest?
resolved Jan 6

With the mana I received from @Austin, I am running a tournament on who can create the best joint market. The winner will receive a Ṁ5000 prize, with second and third place receiveing Ṁ2000 and Ṁ1000 respectively. All tournament submissions will receive subsidization.

More details can be found in the announcement blog post, but here are the key facts:

  • A joint market is one that has four outcomes that must directly reference two other Yes/No manifold markets. The four outcomes of the joint market correspond to the 2 x 2 possibilities of the joint market resolving Yes or No.

  • For a joint market to be eligible, both of the related markets must resolve (or be obviously intended to resolve) "Yes" or "No" rather than "N/A" or "Prob".

  • For scoring purposes, I will be looking at the performance of the joint market over the two month period of November and December 2024.

    • The first of the related markets to resolve must resolve on or before 2024-01-01 anywhere on earth.

    • The second of these markets to resolve must resolve no earlier than 2024-07-01.

  • The markets also shouldn't be overly artificial. This is somewhat subjective, but a market phrased as "This market resolves YES with probability equal to <some-criterion-that-maximises-performance>" would be DQ'ed for this reason.

Your goals for the markets should be to find (or create) related markets which are highly uncertain, but where the joint market reveals a clear connection or correlation. You can read the blog post for more details.

I look forward to seeing your submissions in the comments below (you can make as many as you want, but only your most recent submission at the end of October will be eligible for a prize).

Update: Tournament submissions are now closed. The four entrants are:

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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Ok @traders , I have run some code and it looks like the winners are:

  • James Calder Knight in 3rd (with bonus mana for his special achievement of abiding by the original criteria)

  • Evan Daniel in 2nd

  • Jack in 1st

Congratulations to all. I am posting the resolution code here. I will wait a couple days for anyone who wants to to inspect it for bugs, and then I will resolve and pay out the winners. I have also written a summary blog post here. Thanks!

@BoltonBailey thanks a lot for running this, I had fun. And congratulations @jack

GG guys, I'll take first place (nothing personal).

Jack is disqualified because his first market does not resolve (or close) before before 2024-01-01 and his second market has fewer than 100 distinct traders (it has 15).

EvanDaniel is disqualified because his second market has fewer than 100 distinct traders (it has 78)

Metacontrarian is disqualified because his second market has fewer than 100 distinct traders (it has 95)

@calderknight I mentioned in a comment below that I was lifting the 100 trader requirement when the first submission didn't fit it. I think that since I added all the entrants to the criteria, it makes the most sense to just say they are all eligible participants.

I'm working on the resolution code now and will follow up with a blog post when I am done.

@BoltonBailey oops didn't see that 👍 was a long shot anyway

@calderknight and I think you got the dates wrong for mine. They were end of 2023 and 2024 markets

@jack it was close but it didn't resolve or close in time, obviously it would be absurd to disqualify you based on a 1 day discrepancy but I figured I came here to win so I had to try!

Starship has reached space, marking the first of the marginal markets to resolve. I suspect this bodes ill for @calderknight's submission, since it will be hard for it to have substantial mutual information now.

@BoltonBailey In retrospect, we really need a way for the derivative market to resolve to the underlying when that happens.

And also, average over the period where the underlyings were both open might have worked better. I don't see much value in including the rest of 2023 in the averaging period.

bought Ṁ200 of Other NO

@BoltonBailey Interesting! I'm also quite surprised by the current standings haha.

@BoltonBailey I feel like I've already learned a lot from the low correlation in my market. It's a negative result but an interesting negative result.

I made a web-thingy to view mosaic plots of these joint markets: https://manifoldcorrelation.streamlit.app/

It only works for 2x2 matrices but the plots make the conditional probabilities pretty clear:

@1941159478 This is extremely cool! Thank you!

@EvanDaniel Thanks!

Good luck everyone 👍

3 places paid, 4 entrants... just have to fade fourth place.

Also, it occurs to me that there's no reason to have this market be closed until the tournament resolves, people can still bet on the outcome as it unfolds. I'm going to reopen the question but accept no new submissions. The entrants are:

@BoltonBailey Also note that between the beginning of the month and now, it seems the liquidity provision API changed - now there looks like there is a single "boost" button that splits your subsidy between feed boosts and liquidity. I provided mana to some submissions earlier, so there might be a bit of distortion as to how much liquidity shows up, but each of these markets should have gotten 4000 mana total.

@BoltonBailey You can click "show more" on the boost menu to choose just one or the other

@jack 🤦 Oh well, I guess it's fine, the point of the subsidy is to bring attention to the market so I guess using the default option will do that.

Ok, posting now from my tournament account. I have awarded the subsidies as follows:

Submissions: Awarded 4000 each * https://manifold.markets/jack/israelhezbollah-conflict-killing-40 * https://manifold.markets/calderknight/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023-x * https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/bitcoin-etf-2023-x-new-alltime-high (1000 earlier and 3000 today) * https://manifold.markets/metacontrarian/will-gemini-be-released-before-2024?r=bWV0YWNvbnRyYXJpYW4 Others mentioned in the tournament thread: Awarded 2500 each * https://manifold.markets/calderknight/artemis-iii-flown-with-a-crewed-lan * https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-2025-us-federal-deficit-be * https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/conditional-on-aella-getting-new-ca Others: Awarded 2000 each * https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/trump-vs-biden-2024 * https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/if-the-republican-nominee-wins-the * https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/if-donald-trump-is-not-the-gop-pres * https://manifold.markets/WilliamCox/what-will-be-the-balance-of-power-i * https://manifold.markets/1941159478/will-democrats-win-florida-ohio-pen * https://manifold.markets/ChristopherKing/russia-coupnuke-combination-market (meh)

Please let me know if I've missed anything

I still have about 15000 mana in the tournament account, 8000 of which is for prizes. If there are any last markets I should subsidize with the remainder, link them!

Here's one, even though it doesn't qualify for the competition.

@calderknight Sweet! I will apply liquidity to it anyway.

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