Who will win my joint markets contest?

With the mana I received from @Austin, I am running a tournament on who can create the best joint market. The winner will receive a Ṁ5000 prize, with second and third place receiveing Ṁ2000 and Ṁ1000 respectively. All tournament submissions will receive subsidization.

More details can be found in the announcement blog post, but here are the key facts:

A joint market is one that has four outcomes that must directly reference two other Yes/No manifold markets. The four outcomes of the joint market correspond to the 2 x 2 possibilities of the joint market resolving Yes or No.
For a joint market to be eligible, both of the related markets must resolve (or be obviously intended to resolve) "Yes" or "No" rather than "N/A" or "Prob".
For scoring purposes, I will be looking at the performance of the joint market over the two month period of November and December 2024.
- The first of the related markets to resolve must resolve on or before 2024-01-01 anywhere on earth.
- The second of these markets to resolve must resolve no earlier than 2024-07-01.
The markets also shouldn't be overly artificial. This is somewhat subjective, but a market phrased as "This market resolves YES with probability equal to <some-criterion-that-maximises-performance>" would be DQ'ed for this reason.

Your goals for the markets should be to find (or create) related markets which are highly uncertain, but where the joint market reveals a clear connection or correlation. You can read the blog post for more details.

I look forward to seeing your submissions in the comments below (you can make as many as you want, but only your most recent submission at the end of October will be eligible for a prize).

Update: Tournament submissions are now closed. The four entrants are:

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ123
2		Ṁ11
3		Ṁ9
4		Ṁ3

🏅 Top traders

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