Artemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

Question

This is a "market for markets".

The answer will be chosen according to the resolution of these two markets:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/calderknight/will-artemis-iii-be-flown-with-a-cr)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-china-land-people-on-the-moon)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Artemis III not flown with a crewed landing AND The US returns to the Moon first, followed by Artemis III not flown with a crewed landing AND China lands a person on the Moon first and Artemis III flown with a crewed landing AND The US returns to the Moon first are most likely. See the market for live updates (28 traders, as of Oct 30, 2026).