Will the 2025 US federal deficit be >$1.7T, and which party will win the 2024 Presidential election?
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2025
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25%
>$1.7T deficit, Democrat wins presidency
22%
>$1.7T deficit, Republican wins presidency
27%
<=$1.7T deficit, Democrat wins presidency
26%
<=$1.7T deficit, Republican wins presidency
This is a two-part question:
Will the 2025 US federal deficit be >$1.7T USD? Resolves according to the first official estimate released after the end of the fiscal year (normally in October). See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD
Which party will win the 2024 Presidential election? Resolves N/A if the winner is neither the Democrat nor Republican party.
The threshold of $1.7T is chosen based on projections from CBO: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58946
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