Conditional on AI getting at least bronze on the IMO, will it get gold by 2025?
Conditional on AI getting at least bronze on the IMO, will it get gold by 2025?
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This market resolves based off the outcomes of two other markets:
If either of these resolve YES, and the latter resolves YES, this resolves YES. If the first resolves YES and the second resolves NO, this resolves NO. If both resolve NO, this resolves N/A. If either of the linked markets resolves to something other than YES or NO, I will use my best judgement.
Apr 29, 9:01pm: Conditional on AI getting at least Bronze on the IMO, will it get Gold by 2025? → Conditional on AI getting at least bronze on the IMO, will it get gold by 2025?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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