"Gets negative news coverage" means at least one major news outlet writes an article whose coverage of Manifold is primarily negative. Manifold does not have to be the main topic of the article, but it should be a large part of the article.

(For example: "prediction markets are terrible, here are three examples" counts; "Ammon Lam, also known for participating on the controversial Manifold Markets website, today rescued three puppies from a burning building" does not.)

"A large number of new users" means I look at the "daily active users 7 day average" data here

https://manifold.markets/stats

and I see an obvious large increase right after the news broke. Looking at the graph now, the increases after Dec. 8 and Dec. 29 are right on the edge: I would not count either of them as an "obvious large increase", but anything larger would count. (The larger of the two is about a 25% increase over 7 days. For comparison, the Destiny influx is a close to 5x increase over 9 days. So, let's say if the media reporting is followed by an increase of more than 25% I will probably resolve YES.)

Related market, with some speculation on how negative news coverage might come to Manifold:

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-manifold-market-be-reported-in

Close date updated to 2027-01-20 5:59 pm