Will Manifold be the subject of external controversy involving at least 100 people by the end of 2023?
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71
Ṁ16k
resolved Dec 18
Resolved
YES

Some examples that could resolve this to YES:

  • A Twitter thread that goes viral about how inappropriate a certain market question is.

  • A Twitter thread that goes viral about how Manifold as a platform allows people to incentivize assassinations or other bad actions.

  • A strongly critical news article on Manifold that achieves significant community spread.

A calm, well-reasoned discussion about the pros and cons of Manifold doesn't count. There must be outrage and anger in order for this to resolve YES.

Markets on various sizes of controversy:

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(deleted)

I believe the Santa Paws drama resolves this market unambiguously:

359 likes on a tweet calling out Manifold for hosting controversial markets. On top of whatever drama happened in person at the event.

Another tweet, less likes but just for context:

predicted NO

@DanMan314 I don't think likes count as the size of the controversy?

predicted YES

@AndrewMcKnight Isaac commented this on another market, strongly implying (at least to me) that they do, based on the criteria of "interactions":

Regardless, I think this qualifies either way just from the attendance of the Santa Paws event. 96 reposts + 23 replies basically hits the criteria anyway as long as there's at least 4 people who didn't repost.

predicted NO

@DanMan314 Hmm looks like the tweets are deleted now

predicted YES

@AndrewMcKnight yea I had to go digging for screenshots. Here's the tweet I got the screenshot from (which includes a dig at the original author, for more spicy drama):

https://x.com/Vestboy_Myst/status/1734471090137677864?s=20

So this is the number of interactions at time of screenshot - it probably had a few more at the point it got deleted.

@DanMan314 the 96 retweets and 23 comments are more substantial interactions. I'm getting relegated for this lol.

predicted NO

@DanMan314 It’s kind of hard to take anything that happens on Twitter seriously.

predicted YES

Hmm, WvM might have qualified for this. It was shared on Reddit and some other forums, with lots of emotion. Most of the anger seemed to be directed towards me, but I think some people might have been mad at Manifold?

There's a little over 4 months left in the year and we made it through the superconductors user spike. Betting down to reflect.

@Yev Yeah but those are too long to display nicely, and I can't add them as easily. We really need a mix of the two where I can choose what text represents the market link, and it still displays an updated percentage.

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