Resolution criteria

The New START treaty expired on February 5, 2026, removing the last binding limits on US and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals. This market resolves YES if the US and Russia engage in a sustained, mutual increase in deployed strategic nuclear warheads or delivery systems that represents a clear departure from pre-2026 patterns.

Resolution will be based on official declarations, public statements from US and Russian government officials, and verified data from credible sources such as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the Congressional Budget Office, and the US Department of Defense. An arms race requires demonstrable action—not merely the absence of a treaty—such as:

• Announcements of significant new nuclear weapons deployments or production programs

• Credible reports of increases in deployed warhead numbers beyond what either side had under New START limits

• Resumption of nuclear weapons testing by either party

• Public statements from both governments indicating competitive nuclear buildup

The market resolves NO if both countries maintain restraint through informal agreements, negotiate a replacement treaty with binding limits, or if increases remain modest and unilateral rather than mutually competitive. The market resolves N/A if geopolitical circumstances change such that neither country pursues nuclear expansion (e.g., a comprehensive peace agreement between the US and Russia).

Background

As of January 2025, Russia had 4,309 nuclear warheads, and the US had 3,700. New START capped the number of deployed nuclear warheads at 1,550 on each side. Security experts warn the end of New START risks fueling a global arms race, with China having tripled its nuclear arsenal over the past decade while Russia expanded its short-range weapons.

In September 2025 Putin declared his readiness to adhere to nuclear arms limits for one more year and urged Washington to follow suit. President Trump noted in January 2026 that if the treaty expires, "We'll just do a better agreement." As of February 5, 2026, the U.S. and Russia were closing in on a deal to continue observing New START beyond its expiration, with both sides agreeing to observe the deal's terms for at least six months.

Considerations

Russia is strapped for cash due to the war in Ukraine and not particularly interested in building up its arsenal. Both the United States and Russia have strong incentives to not arms race, but that was true during the Cold War when they did arms race. Without limitations and negotiations, both countries will plan for the worst case scenario, with both sides hedging against strategic imbalance by building up their arsenals.

This description was generated by AI.