Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated by the United States in combat or testing by December 31, 2026. This includes strategic warheads, tactical nuclear weapons, or any other nuclear explosive device deployed by U.S. military forces.

Resolution will be determined by official U.S. government statements, credible news reporting from major international outlets, or public acknowledgment by the Department of Defense. The market resolves NO if no nuclear detonation occurs by the end of 2026.

Background

The United States remains the only country to have used nuclear weapons in combat, with the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II. The President of the United States has sole authority to use nuclear weapons, and U.S. policy permits nuclear first use. As of 2023, the U.S. stockpile stood at 3,748 warheads.

The New START treaty officially expired on February 5, 2026. Russia stated that in the absence of a formal U.S. response, it considered the treaty's obligations no longer binding. As both the United States and Russia digitize their nuclear command and control systems, the treaty helped safeguard against uncertainty and risks of miscalculation. Now, if an early warning satellite detects interference or is blinded, intelligence analysts could suspect that an attack is underway.

Considerations

The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992. The United States will not resume nuclear explosive testing unless necessary to ensure the safety and effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. The question's timeframe extends only through 2026, making the probability of nuclear use dependent on escalation of existing or emerging conflicts rather than routine testing or deterrence posturing.