Will the military conflict cause release of nuclear material. This includes from damage to a nuclear plant or the accidental or intentional release of radiological material from a weapon (eg. "dirty bomb"). This of course includes detonation of a tactical nuclear weapon.
Update 2026-01-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES only for direct causes from the Ukraine-Russia conflict, specifically:
Nuclear disasters caused by Ukraine, Russia, or other belligerent countries directly participating in the conflict
Does not include indirect consequences such as nuclear proliferation to other countries as a result of the conflict
Update 2026-01-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a country like Poland, Sweden, or Germany uses a nuke in the Ukraine conflict, that would count. If they use it against a non-belligerent (e.g., against USA), that would not count.
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@AnnCummings That is a good point. I meant more of a direct cause, ie. Ukraine, Russia, or other belligerent countries directly participating in the conflict, causing a nuclear disaster.
@RobertHopewell Thank you for your kind reply and explanation: If another country, say Poland, or Sweden, or Germany, uses a nuke in the Ukraine conflict, that counts, but if they use it, say against USA, that doesn't count??! Thanks again!!