Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?
Plus
43
Ṁ18852031
74%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Linchuan Zhang and Joel Becker recently bet on this. The full operationalization of their bet is as follows (which I got from https://twitter.com/joel_bkr/status/1495097579369119748?s=21):
—————
Linch 1:14 PM
Proposed bet operationalization:
"a person who had <100M at the time they a) became an EA and b) as of Feb 28 2021, would at any point before February 28 2031 have >$1B USD. Where EA is defined as "either a) public self-identification as EA, b) signing the Giving What Can pledge or c) taking the EA survey and being a 4 or 5 on the engagement axis , and $ as "in inflation-adjusted 2021 dollars.'"
Note that this operationalization would include people who are not EAs today, but would include people who become EAs in the next 10 years as long as they had <$100M.
Joel Becker 5:17 PM
Needs to explicitly exclude crypto too
With that, I take the bet at $10 :)
Linch 9:00 PM
right excluding crypto and inheritances
—————
This market resolves to YES if Linchuan wins the bet and NO if Joel wins, according to Linchuan’s and Joel’s reports. If the two disagree on who won the bet, the market resolves to N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@WilliamKiely I just saw the colon after the Twitter link, so never mind. (Also looks like you can't delete comments anymore.)
Related questions
Related questions
Will I double my net worth by February 2025?
67% chance
Will the world's first trillionaire emerge by 2025?
3% chance
Will there be a trillionaire by the end of 2028?
48% chance
Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, *including* crypto or inheritance?
18% chance
Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?
22% chance
Will there be a half-trillionaire by the end of 2025?
79% chance
Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2024?
89% chance
Will there be an 18 year old [or younger] self-made billionaire (in 2023 dollars) by 2030?
33% chance
Will there be a trillionaire (USD) by EOY 2029?
39% chance
Will Mrbeast be a billionaire by 2025
40% chance