Will I become a billionaire before 2053?
22
879
2053
25%
chance

Will my net worth exceed $1 billion USD at any time before closing

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Billionaire in dollars today (adjusting for inflation), or billionaire in absolute number of dollars?

Also I assume this just means US dollars and you can't resolve yes by getting a billion dollars in play money or something.

predicts YES

@WinstonOswaldDrummond Updated description to "Will my net worth exceed $1 billion USD at any time before closing"

predicts YES

@JonathanRay Not adjusted for inflation!

Why would you?

predicts YES

@NiciusB 1M ordinary income + 19% investment return seems doable and gets there in 29 years!

@JonathanRay 19% annual return is over twice what I would consider high.

In fact, there might not have been any investor who's ever returned that much for that long at that scale:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhIL-CdXwAEYq5u.png

predicts YES

@PatMyron this chart is outperformance vs the s&p 500, which has returned 11.25% on average since 1950, reinvesting dividends

Did miss that note on that axis, but the overall point stands that almost no one has ever done that well for that long at that scale.

I've usually seen long term averages around quoted as around 9% with dividends reinvested, but either way there's only a handful of investors that'd count on that chart, and they're some of the most legendary investors of all time