Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Sébastien Lecornu remains continuously in office as the Prime Minister of France until the end of Emmanuel Macron's current presidential term.

The market will resolve to NO if:

• Another individual is officially appointed as Prime Minister of France at any point prior to the end of Macron's term.

• Sébastien Lecornu resigns or is dismissed and a different person is appointed to the role.

Key details:

• End of Macron's term: Emmanuel Macron's second presidential term is scheduled to end on May 14, 2027. If Macron leaves office early for any reason (including resignation, removal, or death), the market will resolve based on whether Lecornu was the active Prime Minister at the moment Macron's presidency concluded.

• Source of truth: Resolution will be verified using the official registry of the French government (Journal Officiel de la République Française, available at Légifrance) or major international news outlets such as France 24 and Le Monde.

Background

Following severe legislative gridlock and the collapse of the François Bayrou administration, President Emmanuel Macron appointed former Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister on September 9, 2025. Although Lecornu briefly resigned on October 6, 2025, after facing immediate pushback on his initial cabinet, he was reappointed by Macron on October 10, 2025, and formed his second government.

In early 2026, Lecornu bypassed a gridlocked parliament to push through the 2026 budget using the executive powers of Article 49.3. However, with a highly fractured National Assembly and Macron's final term scheduled to end in May 2027, the survivability of Lecornu’s government remains highly uncertain.

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