Will the FDP be part of the next German parliament?

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resolved Mar 2

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This will resolve yes, if the FDP is part of the next German parliament. The election is currently set for 23th February 2025, but the market will settle to the result of the earliest federal election of the Bundestag after the 19th November (I.e. the date of the election does not influence the result).

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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 1.0% order

The data we have so far puts them at 4.9%. Unless I'm misunderstanding something, that's far too close to say there's only a 1% chance they cross the 5% threshold.

@ZaneMiller ah, wait, there are other estimates at 4.5% and 4.7%

@ZaneMiller still, 1% seems low

@ZaneMiller the projections are at 4.4% and 4.5% now (ARD and ZDF), seems very much impossible at this point.

bought Ṁ25 NO

@BenWilop How will you resolve if there's an earlier election?

@lxgr I will resolve it by the result of the next election. If it gets moved earlier or later, we will use the results of the first federal election starting from now. The date does not influence the result of the market.