Will I (@TheBayesian) Reach the Top 20 All-Time Profit Leaderboard before July 2024?
20
428
350
Jul 2
94%
chance

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before July 1, 2024, at midnight EST, I’m listed in the top 20 on the Top Traders leaderboard at https://manifold.markets/leaderboards. Otherwise, the market resolves NO.

Historical Data (as of Jan 2, 2024):

- Threshold for Top 20: 189,709 mana

- My Position: Ranked #100 with 48,244 mana

Jan 16, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ210,594 (20k more!)
- My Position: Ranked #93 with Ṁ59,165 (only 10k more)

Feb 05, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ211,411
- My Position: Ranked #105 with Ṁ52,317

Feb 08, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ211,413
- My Position: Ranked #90 with Ṁ62,102

Feb 10, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ211,481
- My Position: Ranked #47 with Ṁ111,116


Feb 15, 2024:

- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ211,528
- My Position: Ranked #32 with Ṁ143,040

Feb 22, 2024:

- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ211,201
- My Position: Ranked #31 with Ṁ151,047

April 1st, 2024:

- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ232,790
- My Position: Ranked #31 with Ṁ182,767

April 16, 2024:

- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ233,531
- My Position: Ranked #24 with Ṁ218,279

Get Ṁ200 play money
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bought Ṁ100 YES

I'm now Top 24. Pretty close!

Technically, I reached 227k profits temporarily bc of an N/A voting market, but i don't intend to use a similar trick to resolve this market positively. I'm pretty confident I'll reach top 20 before july, and in fact seems like a 50/50 before may. However, with the pivot looming, it seems likely that profiting from trading will get more difficult, so at that point it might become difficult to reach the top 20 if I haven't already. It remains to be seen.

@Bayesian your current trading style seems well suited to do well in the brave new world of fees and no loans, since you already aggressively realise profits and demand large margins. So I suspect you'll do well in relative terms.

@chrisjbillington good to know! I agree to doing well in relative terms. My guess is that the absolute terms will dwarf the relative terms tho. not sure, might make a market about that later

top 50!

opened a Ṁ1 YES at 62% order

@Bayesian your new tooling seems to have helped tremendously

@mattyb barely, almost all of that was all 1 market and 1 guy

@Bayesian I mean to be clear it does help a bunch, but for this wild growth in the last day it was all a fluke

@Bayesian ok, so this velocity isn’t the new normal. I thought you’d give Joshua a run for his Mana

@mattyb yeahyeahyeah 47000M profit per day, top 20 in 2 days, top 1 in a month

ok we're back at the highest value yet, disregarding the fake price spikes

2 days later:

predicts YES

(this is some N/A price spike shenanigans don't be fooled)
back on the trend, line goes up

predicts YES

Wild how this didn’t move

predicts YES

So I lost 18k to a whalebait

predicts YES
predicts YES
predicts YES

I've updated the description with the following, grim, info:
Jan 16, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ210,594 (20k more!)
- My Position: Ranked #93 with Ṁ59,165 (only 10k more)

Still think it's doable though. tough objective!

predicts YES

think it's not gonna happen. people are getting richer and I am not. note that I'm top 52 now but it's due to a bug so don't bet on that. I'm probably still around #98

bought Ṁ10 YES from 40% to 44%
predicts YES

nooo don't bet on that! LOL confusion

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Seems doable.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Wondering how likely this is; ik people often rise quickly and level off when diminishing returns hit, but not sure to what extent this is the case