This market resolves to YES if, at any point before July 1, 2024, at midnight EST, I’m listed in the top 20 on the Top Traders leaderboard at https://manifold.markets/leaderboards. Otherwise, the market resolves NO.
Historical Data (as of Jan 2, 2024):
- Threshold for Top 20: 189,709 mana
- My Position: Ranked #100 with 48,244 mana
Jan 16, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ210,594 (20k more!)
- My Position: Ranked #93 with Ṁ59,165 (only 10k more)
Feb 05, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ211,411
- My Position: Ranked #105 with Ṁ52,317
Feb 08, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ211,413
- My Position: Ranked #90 with Ṁ62,102
Feb 10, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ211,481
- My Position: Ranked #47 with Ṁ111,116
Feb 15, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ211,528
- My Position: Ranked #32 with Ṁ143,040
Feb 22, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ211,201
- My Position: Ranked #31 with Ṁ151,047
April 1st, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ232,790
- My Position: Ranked #31 with Ṁ182,767
April 16, 2024:
- Threshold for Top 20: Ṁ233,531
- My Position: Ranked #24 with Ṁ218,279
Related questions
I'm now Top 24. Pretty close!
Technically, I reached 227k profits temporarily bc of an N/A voting market, but i don't intend to use a similar trick to resolve this market positively. I'm pretty confident I'll reach top 20 before july, and in fact seems like a 50/50 before may. However, with the pivot looming, it seems likely that profiting from trading will get more difficult, so at that point it might become difficult to reach the top 20 if I haven't already. It remains to be seen.
@Bayesian your current trading style seems well suited to do well in the brave new world of fees and no loans, since you already aggressively realise profits and demand large margins. So I suspect you'll do well in relative terms.
@chrisjbillington good to know! I agree to doing well in relative terms. My guess is that the absolute terms will dwarf the relative terms tho. not sure, might make a market about that later
@Bayesian I mean to be clear it does help a bunch, but for this wild growth in the last day it was all a fluke