Will I (@Bayesian) stay above this profit line until EOY 2024?
Basic
29
5.7k
resolved May 24
Resolved
NO

seemed consistent-ish for a while, then funky stuff happened. Back on a 10 day funky-less streak now. Can I keep my all-time profit above this line until the end of the year?

Details: Unless I (or chatgpt lol) made a mistake somewhere, the precise curve I'm going with is such that:
Y(X) = profit at time X

resolves to `all((Y(X) > 0.01120819897625544 * X − 19055796.38381401) for X in {timestamps in 2024 but after market creation})`

Get Ṁ600 play money

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You are at 200k, and you had a 60k dip. 140k is under the red line.

@KongoLandwalker good catch! I saw that and forgot to connect it to this market.

bought Ṁ2 YES

Despite this working decently well so far, I expect making profits to get significantly harder during the rest of the year, with the upcoming changes to the manifold economy. Seems very tough to estimate the odds rn lol but it seems about right

where would you need to be at EOY?

@Stralor >398k M

@Bayesian which, upon saying that, is making me realize that this will be tough (unless manifold grows or wild stuff happens. that seems likely, but yeah if it doesn't and the year is boring then it's a bit of a hassle and i'll probably be less active in a few months)

opened a Ṁ10 NO at 65% order

Can we define this line? It’s been a minute but I’m pretty sure we’re looking for an “mX + B”type deal

@mattyb Let's say the first datapoint is

and second is

So

Y(X) = profit at time X

resolves to `all((Y(X) > 0.01120819897625544 * X − 19055796.38381401) for X in {timestamps in 2024 but after market creation})`

(unless I made a mistake in that formula in which case it resolves to whatever I meant to say instead of the mistake)