MANIFOLD
Will Polymarket's best AI model markets (based on lmarena.ai) resolve without style control in 2026?
6
แน€100แน€258
resolved Oct 16
Resolved
N/A

If these markets stop being run, resolves N/A. If they continue being run, resolves YES if the first such market created with a post-2025 deadline (for example, "Which company has best AI model end of January 2026?" ), resolve based on the highest score without style control. It resolves NO if it resolves based on the highest score WITH style control enabled.

If the resolution doesn't mention this explicitly but says, for example, that it resolves to the best model "according to the default leaderboard settings", this market will resolve based on what these default settings are.

Context:

Currently, by default, style control is on for the default leaderboard of lmarena.ai. The polymarket markets, however, resolve based on style control being removed, ie the raw human preference scores.

Style control is a technique used by lmarena to try to control for the fact that people usually prefer AI model completions that are longer, or other superfluous properties, despite this not making the ai model actually better.

  • Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that the condition for resolution has already been met (a post-2025 Polymarket AI model market has been created). The market will now resolve based on how that market resolves.

  • Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that if the relevant Polymarket markets were created at the same time (making it unclear which is "first"), the market will resolve N/A.

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boughtแน€30NO

@Wojtek wanna bet more?

oh lol nvm the condition for resolution has been met already

they were both created at the same time. ig we resolve N/A?

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