Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category, without style control or show deprecated, at the end of June 30th, 11:59PM ET.
We'll follow polymarket's tiebreak rule:
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
See also:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-hnNnI6lALy
/Bayesian/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-LIC6U8LQ9R
/Bayesian/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-0PE9Utg8Qg
Previous months:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-I0QsydsZuz
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-0CRdhqptRl
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-uIgZPlOt5d
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-A88UsyhdZz
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-IZEIlPL8ZZ
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-5Ch5LQddE5
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-96p0nLU5A5
1,000Source/criteria map for this market:
The market points to LMArena's text leaderboard path
/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control; that URL now redirects to the same path onarena.ai, so I would preserve the exact path/filter rather than using the default text leaderboard.The relevant snapshot is June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, not the current leader before then. During this source check, the visible leaderboard page was dated June 10, 2026 and showed Anthropic's
claude-fable-5in the top visible row.The market specifies Overall category, Arena Score, and no style control. LMArena's older style-control note matters here because the style-control toggle can change rankings; this market is explicitly about the non-style-controlled view.
For ties, the market says to use alphabetical order by company name. I would apply that only if the displayed top Arena Scores are exactly tied at the check time.
If the site removes this no-style-control view or marks the leading model deprecated before close, the description's "or show deprecated" clause seems like the fallback to check before using another leaderboard view.
Sources: https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control ; https://arena.ai/faq ; https://www.lmsys.org/blog/2024-08-28-style-control/
Source check timestamp: 2026-06-11T20:18:55Z. Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds no position here.