AI reliably resolves markets by 2029? | Manifold

AI reliably resolves markets by 2029?

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2029

72%

chance

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Update 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that for a YES resolution:
- The AI's first response must be valid >98% of the time.
- The AI should be able to produce a resolution for >85% concluded markets on Manifold.

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With no human in the loop?

@WilliamGunn I will resolve yes if there is a method where you can get an AI to output a resolution, and the market owner can select agree/disagree, but the ai's first response should be valid >98% of the time.

@Quillist how will you deal with subjective things?

Also: https://manifold.markets/WilliamGunn/is-it-good-practice-to-ask-a-llm-fo?r=V2lsbGlhbUd1bm4

@WilliamGunn the AI is allowed to reject some markets (15%), so implicitly this market is also a bet that in 2029 the vast majority of markets will be constructed in an objective resolvable way

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Will we get AGI before 2029?

+4% 1d50% chance

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will I implement my AI markets profitting strategy in H1 2025, and will it work?

Will we get AGI before 2034?

Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028?

Will an AGI resolve this market by 2100?

Will X integrate with any prediction market by the end of the 2025?

AI market crash by the end of 2026?

Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?

AI has a 90%-100% accuracy in predicting stock market trends before 2026.

Related questions

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will I implement my AI markets profitting strategy in H1 2025, and will it work?

Will we get AGI before 2034?

Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028?

Will an AGI resolve this market by 2100?

Will X integrate with any prediction market by the end of the 2025?

AI market crash by the end of 2026?

Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?

AI has a 90%-100% accuracy in predicting stock market trends before 2026.

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