Will the next major AI model (GPT-5, Gemini 2.0, etc.) be able to correctly predict this market's resolution? | Manifold

Will the next major AI model (GPT-5, Gemini 2.0, etc.) be able to correctly predict this market's resolution?

8

120Ṁ246

2027

67%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

YES if a major, new AI model (released within 6 months) correctly predicts the final outcome of this specific market when prompted with the market text 90 days after its launch. Otherwise, NO.

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

bought Ṁ20 NO

If prompted for 90%, I would expect it to not venture a guess?

@HenriThunberg I have changed the description

People are also trading

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models at the end of 2025?

Will any of these 7 markets about game-playing AI resolve YES in 2025?

Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) achieve over 50% resolution rate on the SWE-bench benchmark?

Will X integrate with any prediction market by the end of the 2025?

Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?

Will an AGI resolve this market by 2100?

Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028?

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

Related questions

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models at the end of 2025?

Will any of these 7 markets about game-playing AI resolve YES in 2025?

Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) achieve over 50% resolution rate on the SWE-bench benchmark?

Will X integrate with any prediction market by the end of the 2025?

Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?

Will an AGI resolve this market by 2100?

Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028?

Will this market be influenced by AI trading bots? (Language models trained by OpenAI: buy YES)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy