Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

Question

10 years from today, December 27th 2023.

My current p(doom) is around 50%. p(doom) for the purpose of this question is the probability that humanity goes extinct, or all human agency gets taken away (enslavement or eternal torture scenarios count, if it applies to every alive human) because of AI.

Note that this question isn't asking about whether doom will actually happen, but whether in 10 years I will predict that it will happen.

See the same market for 20 years:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/TheBayesian/will-my-pdoom-be-above-10-in-20-yea)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 59% chance (14 traders, as of Feb 26, 2026).