Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Question

20 years from today, December 27th 2023.

My current p(doom) is around 50%. p(doom) for the purpose of this question is the probability that humanity goes extinct, or all human agency gets taken away (enslavement or eternal torture scenarios count, if it applies to every alive human) because of AI.

Note that this question isn't asking about whether doom will actually happen, but whether in 20 years I will predict that it will happen.

Same question for in 10 years:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/TheBayesian/will-my-pdoom-be-above-10-in-10-yea)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 37% chance (22 traders, as of Sep 23, 2026).