Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
57
1.7kṀ21k2026
75%
Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Think
41%
DeepSeek-R2
38%
DeepSeek Coder V3
4%
Claude 5
Resolved
YESLlama 4
Resolved
YESClaude 4(any version)
Resolved
YESGemini 2
Resolved
YESClaude 4 Opus
Resolved
YESPhi 4
Resolved
YESGrok 2
When a model named GPT-5 is released, all options resolve NO.
When a model named matching an option is released, it resolves YES.
At end of 2025, all options resolve 50%.
You can add options.
Resolution is by name, not by expectation or capability.
"GPT-5" is not literal. "GPT-5", "GPT 5", "GPT 5.0" all match. But there has to be a "5" somewhere. If it's named "GPT-Next" but described as "fifth generation of the GPT series" I'll accept that as GPT-5. But there has to be a 5 either in the name or in the release article unambiguously designating it.
"Next frontier model after GPT-4" is not clear enough. There must be a "5".
Slight variations of the others are also accepted("Gemini 2" vs. "Gemini-2.0" but not "Gemini 1.5 Ultra" or "Gemini Next").
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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