Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
56
1.7kṀ21k
2026
60%
Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Think
50%
DeepSeek-R2
38%
DeepSeek Coder V3
4%
Claude 5
Resolved
YES
Llama 4
Resolved
YES
Claude 4(any version)
Resolved
YES
Gemini 2
Resolved
YES
Claude 4 Opus
Resolved
YES
Phi 4
Resolved
YES
Grok 2

When a model named GPT-5 is released, all options resolve NO.

When a model named matching an option is released, it resolves YES.

At end of 2025, all options resolve 50%.

You can add options.

Resolution is by name, not by expectation or capability.

"GPT-5" is not literal. "GPT-5", "GPT 5", "GPT 5.0" all match. But there has to be a "5" somewhere. If it's named "GPT-Next" but described as "fifth generation of the GPT series" I'll accept that as GPT-5. But there has to be a 5 either in the name or in the release article unambiguously designating it.

"Next frontier model after GPT-4" is not clear enough. There must be a "5".

Slight variations of the others are also accepted("Gemini 2" vs. "Gemini-2.0" but not "Gemini 1.5 Ultra" or "Gemini Next").

GPT-5 Speculation
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@Mira Gemini 2 and Phi 4 should resolve Yes

Can I add "A Mistral model with over 200B total parameters?" Mistral doesn't have a clear naming scheme like the others

what if gpt-5 gets a different naming scheme?

@MichaelWheatley It's going to have to have at least a "5" in it. I'm tempted to write a literal regex, but I would allow "GPT 5" vs. "GPT-5" vs. "GPT-5.0" and I don't want to overconstrain it.

But if it's "GPT-Next" I'm going to exclude that.

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