Resolves whenever each of Sam Altman and Emmett Shear share their P(doom).
For the purpose of this question:
- If they give a range (like 10%-90%), I'll take the midpoint and consider that their P(doom) for the purpose of this question.
- Resolves when they both publicly share their P(doom) (similar phrasings are allowed).
- Doesn't count instances from before this market was created (but if you're aware of such instances it may inform your predictions)
- For the first person that shares their P(doom), their P(doom) will be the last P(doom) they share publicly before the market resolves. ie if Shear says 30% in 2024, 40% in 2025, and Altman says 35% in 2026, this resolves YES, meaning Shear's P(doom) is deemed higher.
Related market:
Meanwhile, Emmett Shear, OpenAI’s 72-hour interim CEO during Sam Altman’s weekend-long interregnum last month, says his p(doom) can shoot up as high as 50 on bad days. (On good ones, it’s 5.)
If someone asks him again after the creation of this market he'll probably say something in that range.
I feel like Sam would never say anything as high as 50.
@Joshua I think for the purpose of this market Emmett's response would mean a P(doom) of 27.5%. but yeah I agree and it's very unlikely sam would go as high as 27.5%, so yeah 50% would be pretty ridiculous