Resolves to the result of a poll I'll post on manifold when the market closes (jan 25 2025). YES for Emmett Shear, NO for Sam Altman, 50% for "equally concerned".

The market's prompted by a twitter interaction that surprised me:

https://x.com/eshear/status/1750040368719319482?s=20

The poll question will be "Emmett Shear VS Sam Altman: Who is more concerned about x-risk?". The plan is 4 options, but since this is a year away I'm flexible to slight adjustments to the poll as long as it doesn't change the poll outcome:

Resolves to the option with the most votes (excluding the last option).