Is Emmett Shear more concerned about x-risk than Sam Altman?
10
100
170
2025
90%
chance

Resolves to the result of a poll I'll post on manifold when the market closes (jan 25 2025). YES for Emmett Shear, NO for Sam Altman, 50% for "equally concerned".

The market's prompted by a twitter interaction that surprised me:

https://x.com/eshear/status/1750040368719319482?s=20

More details:
The poll question will be "Emmett Shear VS Sam Altman: Who is more concerned about x-risk?". The plan is 4 options, but since this is a year away I'm flexible to slight adjustments to the poll as long as it doesn't change the poll outcome:
- Sam Altman more concerned
- Emmett Shear more concerned
- Equally concerned
- See results

Resolves to the option with the most votes (excluding the last option).

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I don’t understand how/why manifold users can get a better answer than Emmet or Sam. I don’t even see how such a poll is useful in any way. I would just take Emmet’s word for it that they are both equally concerned. I think this obsession with p(doom) numbers is also idiotic and literally makes no sense whatsoever. David Deutsch has a great video on it.

predicts YES

ok but what explains shear's tweet

bought Ṁ0 of YES

I am concerned that the poll result won't necessarily match reality, if eg. manifolders underestimate altman's x-risk concerns because of the reasons mentioned in Shear's tweet. wonder if ppl think this is a concern / if there's a better way to operationalize the question

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Bayesian You could resolve based on their P(Doom)? Shear has been vague, but has said numbers before. I don't know if Altman has said specific numbers, but I'm sure people will keep asking until he does. Even if they both just give broad ranges, you could resolve based on which range is higher.

predicts YES

@Joshua Good idea, and thank you for helping me realize I miswrote Shear's name like 10 different times

predicts YES