What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do in <2 years?
13
1.4kṀ22102027
58%
Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)
41%
Predict future better than human experts in some area
41%
teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus
26%
Learn something at the energy demand of <2x the average human
26%
Faster than light travel
20%
Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson
9%
Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman
6%
Kill everyone - Liron
OPTIONS RESOLVE YES IF THEY HAPPEN
1 option per person, but if you can credit the prediction about this question to a public person you can add it. Interpret the question the way you find most reasonable. You can explain your choice in the comments!
IMPORTANT: the prediction must be realistically verifiable by me (can involve some searching or simple experiment), @Bayesian, in the event that you are not reachable at time of market close. I will N/A options where this is not the case.
If abs(your mana net worth) < 5000, I’ll cover the cost of your option if you ping me or DM me.
Inspired by @liron tweet
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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