Each answer contains a question: Do you think the person/character/concept is more Right-Wing (YES) or more Left-Wing (NO)? Bet YES, or NO, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more.
Heavily inspired from @Joshua's excellent market,
/Joshua/good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
You can submit any person/character/concept (shortened to p/c/c for the rest of the description), as well as a link / short phrase to give traders some context. If other people trade on your submission, you'll get mana off of their transaction fees (edit may 29: currently not true, but I believe it is being implemented currently).
I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary.
As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in p/c/c you think are Right-Wing, buy any amount of NO in p/c/c you think are Left-Wing. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.
If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system.
Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote.
The market will close every every week; See the close date to know on what day. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted.
If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES.
If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO.
If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved.
The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as I think the market is worth running.
It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted.
Some guidlines:
I encourage you not to bet options to extremes (1% or 99%) before a quite clear majority has been established. Otherwise, it prevents others from betting toward that extreme, and can bias the results.
I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.
See:
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Options will only be resolved if they have at least 10 traders total and there is a significant difference in yes/no traders. This will be tested for a few weeks.
Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Options that are considered "draws" (i.e., have very close vote counts) may be resolved to 50% instead of being left unresolved.
1,000People are also trading
@Bayesian would you consider closing it and making a new one? Surely there has to come a point where it's just too unwieldy?
@Fion I like the idea of there being a single market and think the idea is too exhausted to make it worthwhile to have a second one. Anyone else is absolutely free to create a v2 that would be less laggy but i like that people can search for popular concepts within this market and see their wingness. I will consider this more and maybe change my mind later tho
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@ChrisMillsc5f7 Yes, absolutely. They own The Epoch Times, one of the most right-wing news publications out there with what might possibly be the worst crossword of ANY publication I've ever seen
@Kraalnaxx indeed. And implying that Iran is to the left of Israel is even wilder. And yet apparently "siding with the Iranian regime" is left wing
@Lorelai agreed, and yet 8 traders voted that siding with the Iranian regime was left wing, with me as the sole dissenter
Edit: I might have come across a bit defensively here. I think I misinterpreted the word "you" as the direct version, rather than like "one", which maybe is how you meant it
@Bayesian Fine by me tbh. I just had a bunch of mana tied up in the last couple of options although now that you've reopened, I sold off most of them
@TheAllMemeingEye huh, I guess.
governor: D
US senators: 2 D
US reps: 7 R, 6 D
state senators: 18 R, 20 D
state reps: 58 R, 52 D
@Odoacre not a YES trader, but he was from the past. A centrist from hundreds of years ago will be pretty right wing by the standards of today on many issues
@Fion I think Washington could probably be classified as a classical libertarian which means he is a mix of both contemporary left and right.