122
55k
5 hours ago
98%
Infinite Strawberries (NO) -OR- Infinite Mango (YES)
92%
Eradicate all mosquito-born diseases globally, immediately (NO) -OR- Design and implement a (well-received) AI safety plan to dramatically lower x-risk (YES)
38%
Constantly feel like you have to sneeze (NO) -OR- Have hiccups for the rest of your life (YES)

Each answer contains a dilemma: Would you rather pick the first option (NO) or the second option (YES)? Bet NO, or YES, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more.

Every week, the market will close.

If an answer has a clear majority of YES holders, that answer will resolve YES.

If an answer has a clear majority of NO holders, that answer will resolve NO.

If it's very close, and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved.

The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as the market is worth running.


It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding positions are also counted.

Some guidlines:

  • I encourage you not to bet options to extremes (1% or 99%) before a quite clear majority has been established. Otherwise, it prevents others from betting toward that extreme, and can bias the results.

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has good suggestions, so please leave a comment (and ping me) if you do.

See also:

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Eradicate all mosquito-born diseases globally, immediately (NO) -OR- Design and implement a (well-received) AI safety plan to dramatically lower x-risk (YES)

I'm still curious to hear from Yes voters here - you can eradicate ALL mosquito-born diseases globally, immediately, or take a chance on being a person whose plan for AI safety/risk reduction possibly works over time.

any answers on the choice on the coinflip instead of the guaranteed elimination?

the +ev is what matters more than the lack of risk

Which is to say that guaranteed benefit has a slight risklessness premium but overall the reason for YES is that it has the chance to help way more people / sentient folks, under my model of the future

thanks for the answer

Infinite Strawberries (NO) -OR- Infinite Mango (YES)

@Bayesian strawberry allergy. easy choice (even though i hate mangos)

Infinite Strawberries (NO) -OR- Infinite Mango (YES)
bought Ṁ10 Infinite Strawberrie... YES

In my anecdotal experience, real strawberries have a tendency to be disappointingly bitter/sour occasionally, but mangos have yet to fail me lol

@TheAllMemeingEye I live in the same country as these people. unbelievable

@StarkLN which country?

@TheAllMemeingEye USA, so not guaranteed. But like, world just doesn't have the same feeling as "I share a country with these people," you know?

@StarkLN yeah I'm in UK lol, maybe species works?

@TheAllMemeingEye US strawberries might also just be nicer for all I know

@TheAllMemeingEye I'm also a mango disliker, that probably helps

@StarkLN strawberries have never disappointed though

The probability of not being able to find good strawberries in an infinite set of strawberries is zero.

Same for MANGO. If the infinite set really explores the entire distribution it implies u should consider only the limit or tastiness for both fruits, plus some nonzero range around it to enhance one’s need for variety. So really under this frame the question is : is the best thing that could conceivably be called a strawberry better than the best thing that could conceivably be called a mango? And like, come on.

Week 2 markets resolved. I'll add some and welcome others to as well, given that currently options' cost have been reduced to 100M.

Eradicate all mosquito-born diseases globally, immediately (NO) -OR- Design and implement a (well-received) AI safety plan to dramatically lower x-risk (YES)

We need to make an AI that eradicates mosquitoes

Reopen for trading. 4 options stay open until next week.

Wondering if you all think 15 vs 10 votes is a "clear majority"?

@Bayesian That seems like enough to me.

just a heads up everyone that when you bet these types of markets to 1%/99% (like here and the tweet market) no one else can add their vote in that direction. if anyone else tries to bet No at 1% or Yes at 99% it's all refunded and they don't go on the list 🧡

not sure if everyone's aware of that and I've seen a few bets to the extreme probs coming through on both so just wanted to add a comment jic!

Everyone has an always-current history of all of the porn you've ever watched (NO) -OR- A loud buzzer goes off any time you say something not entirely truthful (YES)

I saw a friend the other night and I asked him all of the stuff on the list in this market. when I got to this one, he asked "is it only my porn history, or does everyone have theirs available? it's pretty weird if it's only mine, but less if it's just the norm?" which is a fair point.

Aella had a poll a while back, something like "how fucked would you be if everyone had the history of all of the porn you've ever gotten off to?" and idk, I wonder how many people would even bother to sit with that database to begin with? I guess there are people who would be curious/jealous/skeptical/etc of their partners or prospects and would look for that reason?

@shankypanky reiterating my point in the other thread, reducing to the subset we actually got off to VASTLY improves the result

@TheAllMemeingEye I'm not sure what you mean by "improves" - it's definitely a different question which is why I didn't put it in the thread below, just not to conflate things. I'm sure there would be some people who would look at others' history for the same motivations, though. the arguments definitely change if people see your history and know it's something you... enjoyed. 😂

@shankypanky the improvement is that it no longer includes vile stuff, all that remains is defensible and not reputation ruining

@shankypanky what would be the disadvantage?

@TheAllMemeingEye ah okay, I guess I misread your comment about improving the result being more general but you're speaking purely for yourself - I understand now.

@shankypanky Aren't most people in the same situation though? Only a small minority of people actually have paraphilias I assumed, though maybe I shouldn't have so much faith in humanity lmao

@TheAllMemeingEye just to make sure we're on the same page before I say anything else: I understand you're saying "vile" = "paraphilic"?

ultimately I don't really agree with the term "vile" but I'll assume I have a general understanding of what you mean by that. I double-checked the definition of paraphilia and saw this:

  1. a condition characterized by abnormal sexual desires, typically involving extreme or dangerous activities.

Diagnosable paraphilias include: pedophilia, exhibitionism, voyeurism, frotteurism, fetishism, sexual masochism, sexual sadism, and transvestic disorder.

I think a lot of these things are extremely common in pornography to varying degrees?

that said, I think you're probably looking at it reasonably - for a slice of the population. people who are in communities/families/cultures where the idea of porn or sexuality is considered relatively normal and natural may be a little embarrassed but would also lean on the idea that most people do this etc. but there are a huge number of people that wouldn't agree with that, whether it's because of rejection or shame for religious, cultural, or other reasons. for those people, even the "wholesome tame stuff" you enjoy would be considered horrible at best, unforgivable at worst.

of course, there are also the people whose porn preferences fall higher on the Kinsey scale than they identify or act upon in their lives. many of them may find it really stressful to have people know they watch that content?

@shankypanky fair enough, I was arguably thinking about the issue through a too Western centric lens

I don't think I'd want to go through anyone's porn history - as much as I'd not want to go through anyone's homework googling. I don't see myself being personally invested in knowing these info about someone.

@RanaG same. (I imagine the UI would impact how many people even bother, also, tbh)