Each answer contains a dilemma: Would you rather pick the first option (NO) or the second option (YES)? Bet NO, or YES, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more.

Every week, the market will close.

If an answer has a clear majority of YES holders, that answer will resolve YES.

If an answer has a clear majority of NO holders, that answer will resolve NO.

If it's very close, and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved.

The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as the market is worth running.

It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding positions are also counted.

Some guidlines:

• I encourage you not to bet options to extremes (1% or 99%) before a quite clear majority has been established. Otherwise, it prevents others from betting toward that extreme, and can bias the results.

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has good suggestions, so please leave a comment (and ping me) if you do.

See also: