Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
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13%
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Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.
Resolves NO if we survive without enacting an AI pause
For the purpose of this question:
A global AI pause is a pause agreed on or forced upon countries that cumutatively make up over 95% of AI research between 2024 and the year the pause comes into effect.
A pause must force all AI training within the affected countries to be strongly restricted or banned, according to specific and extensive rules and restrictions.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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