Arguably the probability is way higher than it might seem because any market is implicitly conditional on the user experiencing the result of the payout, that's why straightforward x-risk markets often have crazy low odds, really it's asking "if AI kills us by 2030 but brings us back, will the resurrection be before 2040?"

@TheAllMemeingEye the shares have value if any user experiences the result, including non-human users.

@MartinRandall It only has value to you in particular if you personally experience the result though, right?

@TheAllMemeingEye sure, I'd need to sell them to someone/something else first. Same deal as buying shares in businesses that will live longer than me.

@MartinRandall thanks I hadn't considered selling to the AI haha, though arguably shares might be worthless to a being that is powerful enough to take the winnings regardless of whether it wins

@TheAllMemeingEye yeah needs to be multipolar.

what is time if humans do not exist? would it matter if it were 10 years or 10,000 if continuity were broken and then our existence was restarted?

would we know any different even if everything had decayed, considering our teacher could tell us anything? what role does the persistence of generational and educational memory serve in our conception of time?

I suggest that all time after humans are wiped out is irrelevant. even if it's 10 seconds, the chain is broken. there's no functional difference between 2040 and 2000040 in this scenario. the calendar must be restarted, everything else is left to archeological or religious speculation.

@Stralor you answer is phylosophical and is based on perception of time, not on the time itself. I think the question does not talk about perception, but about atomic clock cycles on Earth surface - about the objective thing.

It makes sense, because it limits the time for AI to find the solution to the problem. Will the AI be smart and autonomous enough to solve the puzzle in X years.

@KongoLandwalker how can you operationalize a notion of time (be it based on atomic clock cycles or Earth’s rotation or whatnot) if your world is completely under control of an all-powerful adversary? If humans are brought back as part of a simulation for instance.

Do digital humans count? I guess they couldn't be uploads, so simulated humans. What fidelity of simulation would resolve this YES?

@MartinRandall Can’t be simulated, it has to be a physical body in the real world, either an actual human or an uploaded consciousness.

@Ibozz91 does a recreated digital consciousness controlling a robotic physical body count?