Which country will win the AI race by 2030?
11
1kṀ990
2029
13%
China
48%
US
32%
No one
7%
Other

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the country that is widely considered to have "won" the AI race by the end of 2030. Resolution will be based on expert consensus from leading AI researchers, international organizations, and technology analysts regarding which country has achieved clear leadership in artificial intelligence development, implementation, and strategic advantage.

If no single country has established a clear lead by the end of 2030, or if expert opinion is significantly divided with no consensus, the market will resolve to "No one."

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This market needs an option for "the AI" (which is the only entity that can ultimately "win" in a contest to create broadly superhuman machines that no one knows how to control or make robustly care about humanity).

@Haiku I'm not sure what you mean. The intention of the market was to predict which country will come out on top of the geopolitical race. Do you have in mind a future where the runaway AI isn't aligned with any country? In that cases I'd resolve no one.

@EdisonYi there could be a distributed GPU compute network tied together with blockchain that no-one's able to shutdown. That network might be what wins the AI race.

@MalachiteEagle if the clear winner of the AI race is not controlled by any particular country, then I will resolve no one.

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