Which country will win the AI race by 2030?

1kṀ1057

2029

ALL

15%

China

42%

37%

No one

Other

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the country that is widely considered to have "won" the AI race by the end of 2030. Resolution will be based on expert consensus from leading AI researchers, international organizations, and technology analysts regarding which country has achieved clear leadership in artificial intelligence development, implementation, and strategic advantage.

If no single country has established a clear lead by the end of 2030, or if expert opinion is significantly divided with no consensus, the market will resolve to "No one."

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bought Ṁ50 YES

as the old saying goes, you can no more win an ai race than you can win an earthquake

This market needs an option for "the AI" (which is the only entity that can ultimately "win" in a contest to create broadly superhuman machines that no one knows how to control or make robustly care about humanity).

@Haiku I'm not sure what you mean. The intention of the market was to predict which country will come out on top of the geopolitical race. Do you have in mind a future where the runaway AI isn't aligned with any country? In that cases I'd resolve no one.

@EdisonYi there could be a distributed GPU compute network tied together with blockchain that no-one's able to shutdown. That network might be what wins the AI race.