From Wikipedia: On 8 December 2024, the Israeli Army Radio reported that Israeli armored units crossed the established border fence in the Golan Heights during early morning operations. The Israeli Army Radio stated that the IDF initiated the operation in order to strengthen its "border" with Syria.
Will resolve YES if Israeli troops remain stationed in the previously-demilitarized Purple Line area on December 8th, 2025, if there are any Israeli civilians living in that area at that time, or if, in my estimation, the de facto outcome of the Israeli December 2024 invasion of Syria is a permanent adjustment to the Syria-Israel border or a redefinition of the "Purple Line".
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Here's a long-term version of this market which does a much better job of capturing whether this is a "permanent" land grab.
https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/israeli-invasion-of-syria-in-decemb
Per your suggestion @Balasar we should make more markets to resolve our political disagreements. I think it's much more productive than arguing. After all, arguments can sound convincing and just be wrong. Mana speaks louder than words.
@ChrisMillsc5f7 As clearly stated in the question description “Will resolve YES if Israeli troops remain stationed in the previously-demilitarized Purple Line area on December 8th, 2025, if there are any Israeli civilians living in that area at that time, or if, in my estimation, the de facto outcome of the Israeli December 2024 invasion of Syria is a permanent adjustment to the Syria-Israel border or a redefinition of the "Purple Line".”