Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Israel formally annexes territory comprising at least 15% of Syria's total land area by December 31, 2029. For resolution purposes, "annexation" means Israel passes legislation or makes an official declaration claiming sovereignty over the territory, similar to the 1981 Golan Heights Law or the 2019 Trump administration recognition.

Syria's total area is approximately 185,180 square kilometers, making 15% equal to roughly 27,777 square kilometers. Israel currently occupies over 1,700 square kilometers of territory (the 1,200 sq km Golan Heights plus over 500 sq km of additional southwestern Syrian territory), representing approximately 0.9% of Syria's total area.

Resolution will be determined by official Israeli government statements, legislation, or international recognition of annexation. Sources for verification include Israeli government websites, Knesset records, and statements from Israeli leadership.

Background

Following the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, Israel invaded the demilitarized buffer zone in southwestern Syria adjacent to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and has continued to occupy it. Israel took advantage of the power vacuum created by the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to increase the amount of territory it controlled by several hundred square miles. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the Israeli military will remain in the buffer zone in Syria indefinitely, until another arrangement is in place "that ensures Israel's security," and the Israeli government has announced new policies to double the number of Jewish settlers and expand Israeli settlements in the occupied Golan.

Considerations

Reaching 15% annexation would represent a dramatic escalation from current Israeli policy. In 1981, Israel annexed the Golan Heights, passing the Golan Heights Law, but the international community, with the exception of the United States, considers the Golan Heights to be Syrian territory held by Israel under military occupation. Any formal annexation of additional Syrian territory would likely face significant international opposition and potential consequences, making such a large territorial claim politically and diplomatically costly.