From Wikipedia: On 8 December 2024, Israeli armored units, including main battle tanks, crossed the ceasefire line in the occupied Golan Heights fence and entered the buffer zone during early morning operations. Israeli Army Radio stated that the IDF and Northern Command initiated the operation in order to strengthen its border with Syria and prevent spillover or attacks against Israel.
Will resolve YES if Wikipedia reports that the Israeli invasion of Syria is over by December 8th, 2044 and that Israel has withdrawn to the Purple Line. Otherwise resolves NO.
Considerations: @Balasar asked a version of this question with a 1-year time window instead of a 20-year window. To better capture the spirit of what Balasar was existing (a "permanent land grab"), we use a 20-year timescale instead.
Markets give Syria a 75% chance to recognize Israel by 2040. It is widely believed that Israel would withdraw to the Purple Line in any final-status deal with Syria.
I will not bet on this market.
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@Balasar I will bet this up to 85% contingent on the return of any land being required to be fully concession-less for a NO resolution. It's still a land grab even if you sell the stolen land back later to its original owner.
@Balasar Your original version of the question asked if it was a permanent land grab. Israel gave back the Sinai in exchange for peace. It wasn't a permanent land grab. Do you consider "Syria recognizing Israel" to be a concession?
@nathanwei No, if recognition was the only requirement, I wouldn't, but if that recognition came with other concessions, like ending claims to the Golan, or forced demilitarization, then I would consider those to be obvious concessions.
@Balasar OK well I agree something like this will happen, so Syria will make concessions. Given what's been happening with massacring of the Druze in Syria and that the Druze in the Golan prefer to be part of Israel I think it's hard to argue that a militarized Syria or a Syria that continued claiming the Golan would be good. In any case, there won't be a permanent land grab. That's my claim. My market is just like yours except with a longer time horizon. 20 years instead of 1 year. To actually see if the land grab is permanent.
@nathanwei OK well I don't think I'll bet on this market then. Stealing something is still stealing even if you sell it back later. I don't really want to endorse this kind of apologia anyways. Whether they take it for one year, five years, 20 years, 100 years, its still just theft. You can contrive whatever BS for why its OK for Israel to unilaterally attack another nation unprovoked, but at the end of the day, that's what happened. If they "give it back" later in exchange for some extortative arrangement, that doesn't make it right. 20 years is too far of a time horizon anyways. Besides, if I am going to get any satisfaction out of being right, it has to be before I leave this website, which is definitely happening in under 20 years. Both of us will be gone by then. Please stop messaging me.
@Balasar You made a market on a “permanent” land grab with a 1 year time horizon. I made the same market with a 20 year time horizon.