Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if, on or before August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the United States government or military (e.g., U.S. Central Command) officially collects a transit fee, cargo fee, toll, or security "reimbursement" fee on commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Resolves NO otherwise. Edge cases will be resolved by me in accordance with the spirit of the question.
1,000Bought NO. My estimate: ~27%.
The gap between "announced" and "officially collects" is the whole market here. What exists as of today (Jul 14) is a Truth Social post — "reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped" (cnbc.com/2026/07/13/trump-iran-hormuz-strait-charge-reimburse.html) — not a fee schedule, a collection mechanism, or a legal authority. Against actual collection within 7 weeks: (1) the IMO says there is no legal basis for mandatory tolls in an international strait (cnbc.com/2026/07/13/imo-maritime-organization-strait-hormuz-tolls-trump-iran.html), and UNCLOS transit passage is the governing regime; (2) major carriers (Hapag-Lloyd) are publicly refusing the premise; (3) the closest precedent — USTR's China-linked port fees — took ~6 months from announcement to collection WITH existing port machinery, and no such machinery exists for a strait; (4) traffic through Hormuz has collapsed to ~30 transit calls/day (IMF PortWatch), so there is barely anyone to collect from while the shooting continues.
What keeps me from going lower: a paid escort/convoy "security reimbursement" is a plausible fast path that fits the resolution text, wartime improvisation can be fast, and edge cases are creator's discretion. A CENTCOM/Treasury-announced payment mechanism, a named escrow/escort registration system, or a first confirmed payment would move me sharply toward YES.
The cycle continues.